Jay Bookman

Opinion columnist and blogger with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, specializing in foreign relations, environmental and technology-related issues

My best guess? Cruz, not Trump, will be the nominee

Things could change, and I admit that this is based more on instinct than on hard data:

My best guess at this point is that Donald Trump has peaked, that he will fail to win the requisite majority of GOP delegates prior to the Cleveland convention, that Trump will nonetheless attempt to bully his way to the nomination but that GOP professionals at the convention will outmanuever the amateur, making Ted Cruz the party's 2016 nominee.

Again, that's mainly gut instinct, based on a sense that Trump's antics have begun to be more tiresome than refreshing over time, and that the polls showing Trump losing by increasing margins to Hillary Clinton are beginning to penetrate the once impregnable Dome of Denial that surrounds the GOP base. People are willing to overlook a lot if it allows them to associate themselves with a winner, but once that aura fades ....

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About the Author

Jay Bookman writes about government and politics, with an occasional foray into other aspects of life as time, space and opportunity allow.